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 Storm Prediction Center:
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 643
WW 643 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 022145Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 445 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MONETT MISSOURI TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 642...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO LOWER MO AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEYS. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS WARM WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE /ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL PART SOF
MO AND IL/ AS UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE MS VALLEY
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...WEISS
Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 643 Status Reports
WW 0643 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 643
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE TBN
TO 15 S BLV TO 35 NE ALN TO 45 NNW DNV.
..GOSS..09/03/10
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...SGF...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 643
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-019-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-049-051-053-075-079-
101-105-119-121-135-139-147-157-159-163-173-183-189-030440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CHAMPAIGN CLARK
CLAY CLINTON COLES
CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS
EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE
FORD IROQUOIS JASPER
LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON MADISON
MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE
PIATT RANDOLPH RICHLAND
ST. CLAIR SHELBY VERMILION
WASHINGTON
MOC093-123-153-179-186-187-203-221-030440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
IRON MADISON OZARK
REYNOLDS STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642 Status Reports
WW 0642 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW CDS
TO 15 ESE LTS TO 25 ESE CHK.
..STOPPKOTTE..09/03/10
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...OUN...TSA...LUB...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-087-143-030240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL MADISON
WASHINGTON
OKC001-019-021-031-033-041-049-063-067-099-101-107-111-123-133-
137-141-145-030240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CARTER CHEROKEE
COMANCHE COTTON DELAWARE
GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON
MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE PONTOTOC SEMINOLE
STEPHENS TILLMAN WAGONER
TXC009-023-077-155-269-275-485-487-030240-
Read more
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Sep 3 03:46:02 UTC 2010
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 3 03:46:02 UTC 2010.
SPC Sep 3, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN PLAINS TO UPPER
GREAT LAKES...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE NRN-STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY RIDGING
ALOFT OVER PAC NW...SHIFTING EWD TOWARD NRN ROCKIES...AND STG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM MN
ACROSS NWRN IA TO S-CENTRAL NEB. THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE EWD
AND DEEPEN...DEVELOPING CLOSED 500 MB CIRCULATION OVER LS BY
12Z...WHILE SRN PORTION REACHES MID MS VALLEY. ASSOCIATED/STG SFC
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 23Z FROM SFC LOW NEAR GRB...SWWD ACROSS
NWRN/EXTREME W-CENTRAL IL...SWRN MO...CENTRAL OK...TX SOUTH-PLAINS
REGION NEAR LBB...TO SERN NM. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SWD ACROSS
SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SEWD OVER OK/MO/IL. BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN OH SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL
KY...EXTREME WRN TN...SRN AR...CENTRAL TX...NRN CHIHUAHUA.
...SRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...
SCATTERED TSTMS -- MOSTLY IN LINES AND MULTICELLULAR SEGMENTS...WITH
SOME DISCRETE CELLS -- CONTINUE ON BOTH SIDES OF COLD FRONT BETWEEN
WI/IL AND TX HIGH PLAINS. SVR GUSTS HAVE BEEN MEASURED AT A FEW OBS
SITES AND MESONET STATIONS MAINLY IN SRN PORTIONS OUTLOOK AREA. REF
SPC WWS 642-643 AND ATTENDANT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR DETAILS ON
NEAR-TERM SVR POTENTIAL.
GREATEST REMAINING THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL
BE WITH ACTIVITY ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MAIN
THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND...SVR HAIL POTENTIAL STILL MAY EXIST WITH
RELATIVELY DISCRETE TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM OZARKS NEWD WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. ACTIVITY OVER
SRN PLAINS INTO OZARKS WILL BE AIDED BY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYERS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE DIABATIC COOLING BEGINS
TO STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER NE...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS EVIDENT...BUT WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND IN BOUNDARY
LAYER. IN BOTH CASES MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND...WITH SOMEWHAT
LONGER-LIVED THREAT OVER SRN PLAINS GIVEN DRIER AND MORE UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER INTO WHICH ORGANIZED OUTFLOW REGIME WILL BE MOVING.
SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH APPRECIABLY AFTER ABOUT 05Z THROUGHOUT
OUTLOOK AREA.
..EDWARDS.. 09/03/2010
Read more
Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical Storms:
Hurricane EARL Public Advisory Number 35
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
Hurricane EARL Forecast/Advisory Number 35
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion Number 35
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
Hurricane EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010
Hurricane EARL Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:33:26 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 03:09:30 GMT
Hurricane EARL Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 03 Sep 2010 02:52:17 GMT
Hurricane Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC
Issued at 1203 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
Hurricane Local Statement for Boston, MA
Issued at 1156 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
Hurricane Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA
Issued at 1149 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
Hurricane Local Statement for Caribou, ME
Issued at 1114 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
Eastern Pacific Hurricanes and Tropical Storms:
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 03 Sep 2010 04:03:41 GMT
East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022353
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU SEP 2 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA
MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM AT ANY TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER COOLER WATERS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Typhoon kills 5 South Koreans
(AP)
 AP - The death toll from Typhoon Kompasu, which battered the Korean peninsula with strong winds and heavy rains, rose to five in South Korea, an official said Friday.
Hurricane Alley Heats Up with Stormy Threesome
(LiveScience.com)
LiveScience.com - Three swirling storms are roaring across the Atlantic with
nervous East Coast residents keeping a close eye on the conveyor belt of tropical
activity as hurricane season enters its busiest time.
Hurricane Earl path stretches from North Carolina to Boston Harbor
(The Christian Science Monitor)
The Christian Science Monitor - Hurricane Earl, some 300 miles south of North Carolina's Cape Hatteras, has now prompted tropical-storm or hurricane warnings from the Tar Heel State's coast to the Massachusetts-New Hampshire border.
NHC Report: Gaston still a depression, headed to Caribbean
(Reuters)
Reuters - Recently-downgraded Gaston remained a tropical depression on Thursday as it churned west-northwest in the central Atlantic on a path that will likely take it into the Caribbean Sea, the National Hurricane Center said Thursday.
Could New York City Handle a Hurricane?
(LiveScience.com)
 LiveScience.com - The National Hurricane Center warns that Hurricane Earl may swing
by dangerously close to the U.S. East Coast before curving back out to
sea. While the odds are it won't strike New York City directly, such an
event is not unprecedented, and the city has plans in place to evacuate -
and to hunker down - if need be.
The nation's weather
(AP)
 AP - Hurricane Earl was forecast to rapidly approach the East Coast on Thursday, bringing unsettled weather to the North Carolina coast.
Tropical storm warning issued for Long Island
(AP)
 AP - A tropical storm warning has been issued for New York's Long Island coast as Hurricane Earl barrels toward the Eastern Seaboard.
NC National Guard activates 81 for Hurricane Earl
(AP)
AP - The North Carolina National Guard will deploy 81 troops to trouble spots from Hurricane Earl.
Earl regains category four status as winds pick up
(AFP)
 AFP - Hurricane Earl intensified in the Atlantic to become a category four hurricane again Wednesday as sustained winds rose to 135 miles (215 kilometers) per hour, the National Hurricane Center said.
Hurricane Earl rakes U.S. East Coast with wind, rain
(Reuters)
 Reuters - Hurricane Earl raked North Carolina's barrier islands with gusting winds, pounding surf and rain on Thursday as it took a swipe at the U.S. East Coast on an offshore path toward New England and Canada.
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